FPIs have turned net sellers in 2022 after being net buyers in the last three years.
With the government clearing the decks for direct listing at the Gujarat International Finance Tec-City (GIFT City) International Financial Services Centre (IFSC), issuers will wait for the ecosystem to develop further before firming up their listing plans. In the meantime, most companies may continue to prefer listing in the onshore market, even as the new avenue provides key benefits such as tax waivers and reduced foreign exchange risk. Sources said that a few key things need to be ironed out further.
The Congress feels there was no articulation of a bold vision of a statement of intent in the Budget, no articulation of a direction in which the economy has to go, and it lacks imagination. Renu Mittal reports.
The Indian equity market valuation has been moving in tandem with the US 10-year treasury yield. While the benchmark US bond yield has witnessed a nearly 70 basis point decline since the end of October this year, dropping from 4.93 per cent to 4.23 per cent on Friday, the Sensex earnings yield has slipped by nearly 45 basis points - from 4.5 per cent to 4.05 per cent. Previously, Indian equities' earnings yields rose in sync with the US bond yields.
Bharat Electronics (BEL) reported excellent results for the January-March quarter (Q4) of FY24, which were driven by decent EBITDA margins and higher PAT as well as good revenue growth. Order inflows were also good. BEL is a major beneficiary of the policy of defence indigenisation.
Geopolitical climate and equity markets as supportive for gold's role as a risk hedge.
Investors shunned shares of Bajaj Finance on Friday, a day after the non-banking financial company (NBFC) reported a sharp contraction in its net interest margin (NIM) for the March quarter of the financial year 2023-24 (Q4FY24). The losses accounted for a fifth of the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex's 609-point loss. Most brokerages have tamed their earnings expectations for the next couple of quarters, after the management said it expected the pressure on NIMs to continue in the near term.
Embattled billionaire Gautam Adani on Thursday spoke publicly for the first time since his ports-to-energy conglomerate publicly battled a short seller's accusation of stock manipulation and accounting fraud, saying the abrupt move to withdraw a fully-subscribed share sale at his flagship firm was due to market volatility. His group continued to lose on the stock market, with the cumulative rout now nearing $108 billion in a week -- one of the biggest wipeouts in India's history. "After a fully subscribed follow-on public offering (of Adani Enterprises Ltd), yesterday's decision of its withdrawal would have surprised many.
According to the ministry's statement, Tomar thanked the BKU (Kisan) leaders for coming out in support of the Farm Acts and said these laws have been welcomed in various states across the country.
The challenge for the RBI in 2024 is likely to be less about containing elevated inflation and more about curbing excessive financial market exuberance and a 'problem of plenty', notes Sajjid Chinoy, Chief India Economist JP Morgan.
'Investors should ideally consider equity allocations from a medium-to-long term perspective.'
'We are going to need more technical people in government.' 'You can't expect a generalist to understand the complicated world of financial engineering.' 'I regret to say that most of our politicians have no competence to deal with these things. Nor is there a willingness to learn.'
Of the eight RBI governors who have held office since the 1991 economic liberalisation, Bimal Jalan had the longest stint and S Venkitaramanan, the shortest. Current Governor Shaktikanta Das will overtake Bimal Jalan before completing his second term in December, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
In a recent note, the global brokerage firm said India now commands a weight of 19 per cent in the above-mentioned portfolio as compared to 18.2 per cent in September 2023. India, it said, is a large liquid market and remains a counter-weight to North Asia if a slowdown in the West occurs and China's recovery disappoints.
Research and ratings agencies like Icra and Moody's have said the CAD in 2018-19 would be much higher than 2017-18
'The reason being we cannot let premiums go beyond a certain point.'
'Will you declare MSP for 100 odd crops that the farmers of India grow?'
The likelihood is that India will maintain a moderately upbeat economic tempo -- well short of tearaway growth, explains T N Ninan.
Gold, the safest haven amid the ongoing uncertainty, also emerged as one of the most lucrative investment options in financial year 2022-23 with an impressive return of 16.1 per cent in rupee terms, and 2.3 per cent returns in dollars. And, had it not been for the very high inflow of smuggled gold and the huge discount prevailing in the market due to high prices, the returns in gold would have been much higher, analysts said. The precious metal has consistently been delivering positive returns in India since 2016.
'Markets are not expensive; they are fairly priced.'
US crude was down 25 cents at $52.08.
A yellow glow is likely to stand out amid grey geopolitical clouds in 2023, with gold price projected to touch Rs 60,000 per 10 grams in the Indian market as more investors veer towards safe-haven assets. In a year where volatility was more a norm than an exception, gold prices in the international market oscillated from a peak of $2,070 per ounce in March to a low of $1,616 per ounce in November and is steadily recovering since then, according to market experts. At the beginning of 2022, gold prices were around $1,800 an ounce.
While rising interest rates and tighter liquidity are giving negative signals for the financial sector, increasing economic activity could mean higher business volumes for lenders. Liquidity in the banking system has moved from Rs 8 trillion surplus into a deficit of Rs 33,000 crore over the 2022 calendar year. By the end of November, bank credit had grown 17.5 per cent YoY (year-on-year).
Chouhan met some farmer leaders on Saturday, but failed to reach a compromise.
The initiative would provide double the relief announced by the states of UP and Maharashtra, the Punjab CM said.
With economic activity still to reach pre-pandemic levels, the RBI may slow down the pace of rate hikes until next year to quell soaring inflation while supporting growth, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) says in its latest report. The Manila-based multilateral funding agency has raised the inflation forecast for the current fiscal year ending in March 2023 to 6.7 per cent from its earlier projection of 5.8 per cent. For the next fiscal year too, the forecast has been revised upwards to 5.8 per cent from 5 per cent earlier.
Two-wheeler exports from India fell by 17.8 per cent to 3.65 million units in 2022-23 (FY23), according to data released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (Siam) on Thursday. This decline is due to a rise in global inflation and the weakening of economies and currencies in key export markets of Africa, Latin America (LatAm), and South Asia. In contrast to FY23, two-wheeler exports from India jumped 35.4 per cent to 4.44 million units in 2021-22 (FY22).
Limited visibility around tariff hike and lack of clarity on new funding could make Vodafone Idea "more dependent" on any form of government relief for improvement of its fundamentals, BofA Securities has said in its latest report. The top brass of cash-strapped telco Vodafone Idea had last week said 'floor price' remains the "best and most preferred" fix for industry's woes arising from tariff-related issues. The company, whose fundraising plans have been significantly delayed, had further said it is in active talks with potential investors, and emphasised that there is no reason to start working on an alternate 'Plan B'.
Mr Adani has a fight on his hands. It is not a fight to the death, asserts T N Ninan.
Over the three-month period, Airtel's stock price has rallied from Rs 432 to Rs 540, while Vodafone Idea has risen from Rs 9.2 to Rs 11.8 per share.
The farming community expects much more substance from the government, Ajay Vir Jakhar.
The outbreak of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus and unprecedented lockdowns in China have roiled its equity market and also that of Hong Kong. After the crisis-hit Sri Lanka, China and Hong Kong are the worst-performing stock markets in Asia on a year-to-date basis.
India's current account deficit is expected to deteriorate in the current fiscal on account of costlier imports and tepid merchandise exports, according to the Finance Ministry's monthly economic review. The review released on Thursday by the ministry also said that global headwinds would continue to pose a downside risk to growth as crude oil and edibles, which have driven inflation in India, remain major imported components in the consumption basket. For the present, it said, "their global prices have softened, as fears of recession have dampened prices somewhat. This would weaken inflationary pressures in India and rein in inflation."
The government has decided to postpone the release of the new Foreign Trade Policy (FTP) and extend the existing one by six months on account of global uncertainties and currency fluctuations. The government was scheduled to announce the new FTP by the end of September. The current policy was to end on September 30.
The rupee depreciation will work in favour of students who are currently studying in the US and plan to secure a job that pays in dollars.
'Such big falls are quite frequent these days, so do not try to time this market.' 'Use big dips to accumulate quality stocks.'
The expected interest rate hike in the US and the resultant volatility in the domestic secondary market could play a dampener to the over Rs 2-trillion initial public offering (IPO) pipeline in 2022. IPOs in 2022 look promising, with as many as 35 companies holding the Securities and Exchange Board of India's approval to raise roughly Rs 50,000 crore. Another 33 companies are waiting for the regulator's nod to raise around Rs 60,000 crore next year.
Higher crude oil prices also translate into better corporate earnings for India's top companies
After selling dollars for the past few months, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may take a hands-off approach before its annual account closing by not trying to prop up the rupee as geopolitical tensions show signs of stabilising with global crude oil prices easing from its $140 peak. The central bank was a net buyer of dollars between April and September, and then turned a net seller in the following months, the data released by the RBI showed. The RBI continued to be a net buyer of $36.6 billion in this fiscal year - between April and January. In 2020-21, it purchased $68 billion on a net basis.
The government's food subsidy in the ongoing fiscal year is expected to be a little less than Rs 4 trillion.
